Wednesday 23 October 2013

Grading the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays Season: The Outfield

Left Field:
Melky Cabrera:
Coming off a very up and down 2012 season that saw him get off to an incredible start before being suspended for the rest of the season after testing positive for a PED, Melky Cabrera was one of the most intriguing players coming into the 2013 season. He managed to pull off a 4.4 WAR in only 501 PA's in 2012, so the 2 year, $16 million dollar contract he signed with the Blue Jays in the offseason seemed like it couldn't go wrong. It did. Maybe the Jays should've known better. After all, by far the  best two years of his career had come in 2011 and 2012 and it can be assumed that he was taking PED's during that time period. But the Jays thought that he could only regress so much, and so they took a risk (albeit, small, the contract is not long or expensive) on him. Cabrera managed to work up a -0.9 WAR in 372 injury riddled PA's this past season. His .279 BA hung around his career average, but was way below the .346 2012 BA and the .305 2011 BA. But Melky's average wasn't the probably, a .279 BA is still an above average BA. His .322 OBP was .015 points below his career average and was very poor. But what really killed Cabrera's batting this season was that his power was completely zapped. His SLG dropped .156 points from 2012 to 2013. He hit only 3 homeruns in 372 PA's. Cabrera's hitting this year was awful, and by far his worse offensive season since 2010. Cabrera has never been a good defensive player, and that trend continued with a -7.3 UZR. Cabrera had a truly awful 2012 campaign. However, it's possible it could be explained by the injuries that appeared to hobble him throughout the season. In left field he could barely run, anything hit more than 20 feet away from his was an automatic hit. His legs were awful. This could also explain his severe lack of power, as his legs were clearly not near 100%. His season may also have sucked because he wasn't juicing anymore. He's signed on for one more year at $8 million and if Alex Anthopolous can pair him up with a right-handed hitting left fielder (Like, I dunno, Rajai Davis?), than the Jays may be able to have a decent platoon in left next year.
D

Center Field:
Colby Rasmus:
According to WAR, the Blue Jays best player in 2013 was Colby Rasmus. The 26-year-old centerfielder had his best offensive campaign since his "breakout" 2010 season with the Cardinals. His 2013 numbers are actually quite similar to his 2010 season. This past season, Rasmus had a slash line of .276/.338/.501, quite impressive for a centerfielder. However, his K% rate, at 29.5% was the highest of his career (with his 2010 K% rate being right behind), and his BB% rate, at 8.1% was below his career average. Rasmus also had a ridiculously high BABIP of .356 (with his 2010 BABIP right behind). All of these peripheral numbers point to serious regression offensively in 2013. It's theoretically possible that the higher K% means that Rasmus is swinging harder, which would in turn likely lead to a higher BABIP, but definitely not a .356 BABIP, especially when his career average is .299. And even that .299 career BABIP is solely built of his 2013 year and his 2010 .354 BABIP. He has never had a year with a number above .282 in his career. His power, however, is very promising. He broke .500 in slugging for the first time in his career this past season. His .225 ISO power was second behind only Mike Trout among centerfielders. Rasmus' defense is what really pushed his 2013 season though. He posted a 11.2 UZR this past season, which lead the Jays, and was third among all MLB centerfielders. Offensively, Rasmus may have gotten lucky, but the power is probably real. Defensively, personally, I think Rasmus is real. He looked like a gazelle out there on the Rogers Centre turf. It made me wonder, with his tracking ability and speed to run after long fly balls, how Rasmus didn't steal a single bag this past season.
A-

Right Field:
Jose Bautista:
Joey Bats continued his success in a Blue Jays uniform this past season with a 4.2 WAR season in only 118 games. In some ways this might be worrying as Bautista has gone through his second straight season that was ended early by an injury. In fact, he's only played 210 games in the past two seasons. But enough with the injury stuff. Bautista is tied down under one of the best contracts in all of baseball, at $14 million for the next two years with a $14 million team option in 2016. Bautista is getting up there in age, as he turned 33 years old 4 days ago. Into the offence: Bautista continued his ability to make contact and to draw walks with a 15.9% K rate and a 13.1% BB rate in 2013. Those peripherals lead him to have a slash line of .259/.358/.498, good for a wOBA of .372 which puts him at 20th in baseball among players with at least 500 PA's. Not bad. As a I mentioned in the paragraph on teammate Edwin Encarnacion, Bautista had another very low BABIP which does not correlate at all with good contact hitters like themselves. So even though Bautista is historically a low BABIP guy (.259 in 2013, .269 for his career), I still could easily a hike up in his triple slash next year if he gets even a little bit more lucky.  Unlike Colby Rasmus, Bautista doesn't have the best range in the outfield. Not unlike Colby Rasmus, however, is the fact that Bautista possess a rocket launcher for an arm, and more than makes up for his range with his arm. This lead to a 5.5 UZR in 2013. He has finished top 10 in outfield assists in 4 of the past 5 seasons. A hopefully healthy Bautista should have another great season in 2014, and maybe with a little of long overdue BABIP help, can have launch the Jays into the postseason.
B+

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