Week 10 NFL Picks

My first week above .500! Woo! Moving on up. I'll be breaking even by Week 17.

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Pick
11/7 8:25 ET	Washington	-1.5	At Minnesota	WSH
11/10 1:00 ET	At Tennessee	-12.5	Jacksonville	TEN
11/10 1:00 ET	At Green Bay	-1	Philadelphia	GB
11/10 1:00 ET	At Pittsburgh	-3	Buffalo	BUF
11/10 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-7	Oakland	NYG
11/10 1:00 ET	At Indianapolis	-9.5	St. Louis	IND
11/10 1:00 ET	Seattle	-5.5	At Atlanta	SEA
11/10 1:00 ET	Cincinnati	-1.5	At Baltimore	BAL
11/10 1:00 ET	At Chicago	PK	Detroit	CHI
11/10 4:05 ET	At San Francisco	-6	Carolina	SF
11/10 4:25 ET	At Arizona	-3	Houston	HOU
11/10 4:25 ET	Denver	-7	At San Diego	DEN
11/10 8:30 ET	At New Orleans	-6.5	Dallas	NO

Monday Night Football Line

11/11 8:40 ET	Miami	-2.5	At Tampa Bay	MIA

Grading the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays Season: The Outfield

Left Field:
Melky Cabrera:
Coming off a very up and down 2012 season that saw him get off to an incredible start before being suspended for the rest of the season after testing positive for a PED, Melky Cabrera was one of the most intriguing players coming into the 2013 season. He managed to pull off a 4.4 WAR in only 501 PA's in 2012, so the 2 year, $16 million dollar contract he signed with the Blue Jays in the offseason seemed like it couldn't go wrong. It did. Maybe the Jays should've known better. After all, by far the  best two years of his career had come in 2011 and 2012 and it can be assumed that he was taking PED's during that time period. But the Jays thought that he could only regress so much, and so they took a risk (albeit, small, the contract is not long or expensive) on him. Cabrera managed to work up a -0.9 WAR in 372 injury riddled PA's this past season. His .279 BA hung around his career average, but was way below the .346 2012 BA and the .305 2011 BA. But Melky's average wasn't the probably, a .279 BA is still an above average BA. His .322 OBP was .015 points below his career average and was very poor. But what really killed Cabrera's batting this season was that his power was completely zapped. His SLG dropped .156 points from 2012 to 2013. He hit only 3 homeruns in 372 PA's. Cabrera's hitting this year was awful, and by far his worse offensive season since 2010. Cabrera has never been a good defensive player, and that trend continued with a -7.3 UZR. Cabrera had a truly awful 2012 campaign. However, it's possible it could be explained by the injuries that appeared to hobble him throughout the season. In left field he could barely run, anything hit more than 20 feet away from his was an automatic hit. His legs were awful. This could also explain his severe lack of power, as his legs were clearly not near 100%. His season may also have sucked because he wasn't juicing anymore. He's signed on for one more year at $8 million and if Alex Anthopolous can pair him up with a right-handed hitting left fielder (Like, I dunno, Rajai Davis?), than the Jays may be able to have a decent platoon in left next year.
D

Center Field:
Colby Rasmus:
According to WAR, the Blue Jays best player in 2013 was Colby Rasmus. The 26-year-old centerfielder had his best offensive campaign since his "breakout" 2010 season with the Cardinals. His 2013 numbers are actually quite similar to his 2010 season. This past season, Rasmus had a slash line of .276/.338/.501, quite impressive for a centerfielder. However, his K% rate, at 29.5% was the highest of his career (with his 2010 K% rate being right behind), and his BB% rate, at 8.1% was below his career average. Rasmus also had a ridiculously high BABIP of .356 (with his 2010 BABIP right behind). All of these peripheral numbers point to serious regression offensively in 2013. It's theoretically possible that the higher K% means that Rasmus is swinging harder, which would in turn likely lead to a higher BABIP, but definitely not a .356 BABIP, especially when his career average is .299. And even that .299 career BABIP is solely built of his 2013 year and his 2010 .354 BABIP. He has never had a year with a number above .282 in his career. His power, however, is very promising. He broke .500 in slugging for the first time in his career this past season. His .225 ISO power was second behind only Mike Trout among centerfielders. Rasmus' defense is what really pushed his 2013 season though. He posted a 11.2 UZR this past season, which lead the Jays, and was third among all MLB centerfielders. Offensively, Rasmus may have gotten lucky, but the power is probably real. Defensively, personally, I think Rasmus is real. He looked like a gazelle out there on the Rogers Centre turf. It made me wonder, with his tracking ability and speed to run after long fly balls, how Rasmus didn't steal a single bag this past season.
A-

Right Field:
Jose Bautista:
Joey Bats continued his success in a Blue Jays uniform this past season with a 4.2 WAR season in only 118 games. In some ways this might be worrying as Bautista has gone through his second straight season that was ended early by an injury. In fact, he's only played 210 games in the past two seasons. But enough with the injury stuff. Bautista is tied down under one of the best contracts in all of baseball, at $14 million for the next two years with a $14 million team option in 2016. Bautista is getting up there in age, as he turned 33 years old 4 days ago. Into the offence: Bautista continued his ability to make contact and to draw walks with a 15.9% K rate and a 13.1% BB rate in 2013. Those peripherals lead him to have a slash line of .259/.358/.498, good for a wOBA of .372 which puts him at 20th in baseball among players with at least 500 PA's. Not bad. As a I mentioned in the paragraph on teammate Edwin Encarnacion, Bautista had another very low BABIP which does not correlate at all with good contact hitters like themselves. So even though Bautista is historically a low BABIP guy (.259 in 2013, .269 for his career), I still could easily a hike up in his triple slash next year if he gets even a little bit more lucky.  Unlike Colby Rasmus, Bautista doesn't have the best range in the outfield. Not unlike Colby Rasmus, however, is the fact that Bautista possess a rocket launcher for an arm, and more than makes up for his range with his arm. This lead to a 5.5 UZR in 2013. He has finished top 10 in outfield assists in 4 of the past 5 seasons. A hopefully healthy Bautista should have another great season in 2014, and maybe with a little of long overdue BABIP help, can have launch the Jays into the postseason.
B+

Week 7 NFL Picks

Yikes. 23-36-1. Well, I'll keep making them because they're fun, but good thing no money is going in on this. Don't follow my advice.

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Pick
10/17 8:25 ET	Seattle	-5	At Arizona	SEA
10/20 1:00 ET	New England	-3.5	At NY Jets	NE
10/20 1:00 ET	San Diego	-7.5	At Jacksonville	SD
10/20 4:25 ET	At Kansas City	-6	Houston	KC
10/20 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-2.5	Cincinnati	CIN
10/20 1:00 ET	At Miami	-7.5	Buffalo	BUF
10/20 1:00 ET	At Washington	PK	Chicago	CHI
10/20 1:00 ET	At Philadelphia	-3	Dallas	PHI
10/20 1:00 ET	At Carolina	-6	St. Louis	CAR
10/20 1:00 ET	At Atlanta	-7	Tampa Bay	TB
10/20 4:05 ET	San Francisco	-4	At Tennessee	SF
10/20 4:25 ET	At Green Bay	-10	Cleveland	GB
10/20 4:25 ET	At Pittsburgh	-2	Baltimore	BAL
10/20 8:30 ET	Denver	-6.5	At Indianapolis	DEN

10/21 8:40 ET	At NY Giants	-3.5	Minnesota	NYG

Week 6 NFL Picks

After 3 weeks, I'm not doing to well (19-26-1). Good thing real money isn't being put on my picks.
The big game this week takes place when the 5-0 New Orleans Saints take on the 4-1 New England Patriots. The two of the 4 best quarterbacks in the NFL, being Brady and Brees (and the other two being Rodgers and Peyton Manning), should make for a great game.

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Piick
10/13 1:00 ET	At Kansas City	-8.5	Oakland	KC
10/13 1:00 ET	Philadelphia	-2.5	At Tampa Bay	TB
10/13 1:00 ET	Green Bay	-3	At Baltimore	GB
10/13 1:00 ET	Detroit	-2.5	At Cleveland	CLE
10/13 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-2	Carolina	MIN
10/13 1:00 ET	At Houston	-7.5	St. Louis	HOU
10/13 1:00 ET	At NY Jets	-1	Pittsburgh	NYJ
10/13 1:00 ET	Cincinnati	-6.5	At Buffalo	CIN
10/13 4:05 ET	At Seattle	-13.5	Tennessee	SEA
10/13 4:05 ET	At Denver	-27	Jacksonville	JAC
10/13 4:25 ET	At San Francisco	-10.5	Arizona	SF
10/13 4:25 ET	At New England	-2	New Orleans	NO
10/13 8:30 ET	At Dallas	-5.5	Washington	DAL

10/14 8:40 ET	Indianapolis	-1.5	At San Diego	IND

Grading the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays Season: The Infield

An inarguably disappointing 2013 season for Toronto Blue Jays is coming to close this week, and I thought I'd grade the team as a way to cap their season.

Catcher:
J.P. Arencibia: It has been a rough year for J.P. Arencibia. According to FanGraphs, he has been the 3 worst player in the majors this season, at -0.6 WAR, behind Adeiny Hechavarria (ex-Blue Jay) and Paul Konerko. He has managed a slash line of .194/.227/.365, a line that is truly staggering in awfulness. His batting average is last among qualified catchers by .033. His on-base percentage is last by almost .060. His slugging percentage is last by .015, and Arencibia is "known" for his power. His season hasn't just been bad, it has been catastrophically bad. His BB% is at 3.6%, which is the third worst in the entirety of the majors. His K%, at 29.8% is the 7th worst in the majors. This awful season hasn't been bad luck, it hasn't been that he's hitting right at the opposing fielders a lot. With an awful strikeout rate like that, he's bound to have a low average, which in turn will cause a lower OBP and SLG. His power isn't all gone, as his .171 ISO Power number suggests. His extremely low SLG % is brought down by the fact that he can't keep his average above the Mendoza line. His defense this season has also been very poor. His 13 passed balls are 4 more than the next highest catcher, and he committed 11 errors, worst among catchers.
Arencibia was probably the worst player on the Jays this season which makes the fact that he has played the most innings out of any player on the team kind of scary.

F-

First Base/Designated Hitter:
Adam Lind: Lind resurrected his career this season, after spending over a quarter of last season toiling away in AAA. Lind came into this season more patient than ever, and did it ever payoff. While he didn't recreate his peak 2009 season, Lind came fairly close. He posted a line of .288/.357/.497, all numbers well above his career averages. For the fourth time in his career he surpassed the 20 home run mark, and ended the season with 23 in only 521 PA's. His 9.8 BB% is by far his career high, and over 2.5% above his career average. This should lead to more consistent success overall. His .324 BABIP is over .020 higher than his career average, but the rise in walks could be the reason to this. His defense this year was slightly subpar, posting a UZR of -2.8, which ranks him 24th out of 31 first basemen with at least 600 IP. He has a $8,000,000 team option for 2014 and I think the Jays should strongly consider executing that for Lind to be the team's first baseman next year.

B+

Edwin Encarnacion: Encarnacion had almost the exact same season as 2012 except with a little less power and a little less luck. For the second straight year he has posted a slash line above .270/.370/.530. This year, however, he lowered his K% by over 4.5%, a staggering amount, especially for a 30-year-old. For the first time in his career, he has recorded more walks than strikeouts (82 and 62, respectively). He joined Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Miguel Cabrera as the only players since 2009 to have more walks than strikeouts while hitting 30 home runs. His .247 BABIP is almost .030 below his career average, so it's perfectly reasonable to expect a small uptake in AVG, OBP, and SLG next year. Another reason to expect an even better season in 2014 is this: According to ESPN Stats and Info, Encarnacion and teammate Jose Bautista are the only players in the top 25 of "Well Hit Average" (a subjective stat kept by ESPN's team) to have a BABIP under .300, and they are both well below at .247 and .259, respectively. You would expect someone with a high "well hit average" to have a high batting average on balls in play (BABIP), as a hard hit ball is more likely to find some green than a soft hit ball, which is why the BABIP's for the top 25 are so high. So to have both Encarnacion and Bautista both have a BABIP not only below .300 but well below .300 indicates that they both could be on the upswing heading into 2014.

A

Second Base:
Maicer Izturis: If you just looked at WAR, Maicer Izturis was the very worst player in baseball this year. He was worth -2.1 wins over the course of the 2013 season. He was so bad, that even though he didn't qualify for end of season leaderboards because he didn't have enough at bats, he still accumulated the worst WAR. Izturis had 179 less PA's than the second last in WAR. Why was he so bad? For starters, his slash line was .236/.288/.310, all significantly worse than his career average, all of them the very worst of his career. His BB% was down 1.2%, but his K% was also down, by 1.1%. His BABIP was down over .050 points, so that's a reasonable explanation as to the severe down year in AVG and OBP. His baserunning abilities were completely zapped with Izturis' transition from Los Angeles to Toronto. In 2,913 career PA's prior to the 2013 season, Izturis had 91 steals, good for an 18.74 steals per 600 PA rate. This year, he stole 1 base in 399 PA's. Izturis is 33 now and I wouldn't expect his old speed to come back, but I also wouldn't expect it to completely vanish like it did this year. His defense was another reason for his awful 2013 season. He amassed a UZR of -8.9 at 2B over 413.1 innings played, -4.7 UZR at 3B over 291.1 innings played, and -2.8 UZR over 174.1innings played at SS. This was by far Izturis' worst defensive seasons, and players have odd seasons where advanced metrics rate them really poorly sometimes, so it's possible he goes back next and is his average self. I'd also expect his batting totals to be better than this past year as his BABIP improves to league norm.

F

Shortstop:
Jose Reyes: Toronto Blue Jays fans hearts shattered on April 12th, 2013, as their new star shortstop ankle twisted awkwardly as he slid into second. The season, already off to a rough start, was shellshocked as Jose Reyes was rolling around second base, head in his shirt, tears streaming out of his eyes. Reyes worked hard to come back way ahead of schedule, at the end of June, and ended up accumulating 419 PA's for the club on the year. It was not a bad year nor a great year for the jovial Dominican. His triple slash line of .296/.353/.427 all hovered around his career averages. Those numbers should continue next year. A concern, however, is the lack of speed from Reyes after he came back from the severe ankle sprain. He only had 15 steals on the year, by far the fewest of his career in seasons in which he had at least 300 PA's. Hopefully this is because Reyes was wary of re-injuring his ankle, and I'd predict his goes back to around 35 steals if he plays a full season. Other than a couple peak defensive seasons during the beginning of his career, Reyes has been a fairly average shortstop, which definitely has value. This year was the worst of his career, with a -5.3 UZR. Again, this may because he range was less than usually, playing on a less than perfect ankle. I'd expect Reyes to be back to his old self all around next year, .290/.350/.440 with 35-40 steals and average at best defense, which is a pretty valuable player.

B+

Third Base:
Brett Lawrie: How long will Blue Jays fans be waiting for Lawrie to duplicate his amazing 43 games in 2011? Another season with Brett Lawrie has come and gone with plenty of different injuries plaguing him throughout the year. Pre All-Star break, Lawrie was quite bad, hitting .204/.261/.361. However, Lawrie really turned it around in the second half, finishing strong going .283/.346/.417, good for a .763 OPS. On the plus side, Lawrie slightly raised his BB% and lowered his K% from his 2012 season, which points to some plate discipline progression. His BABIP was .020 lower than his career norm so I would expect a small uptake next year across the board. Lawrie is still only 23, and at least improved upon his dismal 2012 season, having the same amount of HR's in 96 less PA's. His defense was down from last year, as he rode the coattails of John Farrell's severe shifting tactics in 2012 to have one of the best thirdbase defensive seasons ever. However, Lawrie is still a plus defender, even on a down year.

C+

Expect the next instalment of this series, The Outfield, to come out soon.

Week 5 NFL Picks

Last week I continued my less than good performance in picking against the lines, as I am now 13-18-1 on the season. However I will keep setting a good example of why gambling is not a good idea as I make my Week 5 NFL Picks.

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Pick
10/3 8:25 ET	At Cleveland	-3.5	Buffalo	BUF
10/6 1:00 ET	Kansas City	-3	At Tennessee	KC
10/6 1:00 ET	At Miami	-3	Baltimore	MIA
10/6 1:00 ET	At St. Louis	-11.5	Jacksonville	JAC
10/6 1:00 ET	At Cincinnati	-1	New England	NE
10/6 1:00 ET	Seattle	-3	At Indianapolis	IND
10/6 1:00 ET	At Green Bay	-7	Detroit	GB
10/6 1:00 ET	New Orleans	-1	At Chicago	NO
10/6 1:00 ET	At NY Giants	-2	Philadelphia	PHI
10/6 4:05 ET	Carolina	-2	At Arizona	CAR
10/6 11:35 ET	San Diego	-4.5	At Oakland	SD
10/6 4:25 ET	Denver	-7.5	At Dallas	DEN
10/6 8:30 ET	At San Francisco	-6.5	Houston	HOU

10/7 8:40 ET	At Atlanta	-10	NY Jets	ATL

NHL Predictions

My favourite sport (a very hard decision to make) begins tomorrow. The new hockey season is upon us and I couldn't be more excited. My favourite team, the Toronto Maple Leafs, take on the Canadiens tomorrow in Montreal, and hopefully, the Leafs continue their play against the Habs from last year, where the Leafs won 3 out of 5, including a 5-1 and 6-0 win.

These are my predictions for the upcoming season.

Eastern:
1. Pittsburgh
2. Boston
3. NY Rangers
4. Washington
5. New Jersey
6. Ottawa
7. Toronto
8. Philadelphia
9. Detroit
10. Carolina
11. NY Islanders
12. Montreal
13. Buffalo
14. Columbus
15. Tampa Bay
16. Florida

Metropolitan:
1. Pittsburgh
2. NY Rangers
3. Washington
4. New Jersey
5. Philadelphia
6. Carolina
7. NY Islanders
8. Columbus

Atlantic:
1. Boston
2. Ottawa
3. Toronto
4. Detroit
5. Montreal
6. Buffalo
7. Tampa Bay
8. Florida

Western:
1. Chicago
2. Los Angeles
3. St. Louis
4. Minnesota
5. Vancouver
6. San Jose
7. Phoenix
8. Anaheim
9. Nashville
10. Dallas
11. Edmonton
12. Winnipeg
13. Colorado
14. Calgary

Central:
1. Chicago
2. St. Louis
3. Minnesota
4. Nashville
5. Dallas
6. Winnipeg
7. Colorado

Pacific:
1. Los Angeles
2. Vancouver
3. San Jose
4. Phoenix
5. Anaheim
6. Edmonton
7. Calgary

Eastern Conference Final:
Pittsburgh over Boston in 5

Western Conference Final:
St. Louis over Los Angeles in 7

Stanley Cup Final:
Pittsburgh over St. Louis in 7

Just by doing these standings predictions, I get the feeling that the Eastern Conference has two top tier teams, head and above the others (BOS and PIT), and then 10 or so teams that could absolutely fit in the playoff picture in any order. The Western Conference, on the other hand, feels like there are about 6 very good teams and then 8 teams that don't really belong in the playoffs. A cool contrast.

NHL Awards:

Hart Memorial Trophy: Sidney Crosby
Art Ross Trophy: Sidney Crosby
Vezina Trophy: Tuukka Rask
James Norris Trophy: Erik Karlsson
Calder Memorial Trophy: Seth Jones

Here's to a great season!

Week 4 NFL Picks

In my first week of making picks, I went 6-9-1. A rough start, no doubt. I hope to vastly improve on that and get to .500 for Week 5. There aren't many big storylines heading into this week, other than that maybe, just maybe, Rob Gronkowski might make his debut of the 2013 season. As per usual with Gronk, though, he's listed as "questionable" heading into Thursday night.

The picks:

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	Pick
9/26 8:25 ET	San Francisco	-3.5	At St. Louis	SF
9/29 1:00 ET	Pittsburgh	-3	Minnesota (At London)	PIT
9/29 1:00 ET	Baltimore	-3	At Buffalo	BAL
9/29 1:00 ET	Cincinnati	-4.5	At Cleveland	CIN
9/29 1:00 ET	Indianapolis	-8.5	At Jacksonville	IND
9/29 1:00 ET	Seattle	-2.5	At Houston	SEA
9/29 1:00 ET	At Tampa Bay	-2.5	Arizona	TB
9/29 1:00 ET	At Detroit	-3	Chicago	CHI
9/29 1:00 ET	At Kansas City	-4.5	NY Giants	NYG
9/29 4:05 ET	At Tennessee	-3.5	NY Jets	NYJ
9/29 4:25 ET	Dallas	-2	At San Diego	SD
9/29 4:25 ET	Washington	-3.5	At Oakland	WAS
9/29 4:25 ET	At Denver	-11	Philadelphia	PHI
9/29 8:30 ET	At Atlanta	-2	New England	ATL

Monday Night Football Line

9/30 8:40 ET	At New Orleans	-6.5	Miami	NO

I picked a lot of favourites this week, but I just hope to see some great games and another Jets win. 

Week 3 NFL Picks

The NFL season is well underway as Week 3 opens up tomorrow when Andy Reid returns to Philadelphia for the first time since being fired at the end of the 2012 NFL season. Reid's new team, the Kansas City Chiefs, are coming off a last place, 2-14 season. However, the team is 2-0 this year, having beaten the Jaguars and the Cowboys. It's a good story line to watch as Week 3 begins.

These are my picks for this week:

Date & Time	Favorite	Line	Underdog	PICK
9/19 8:25 ET	At Philadelphia	-3	Kansas City	PHI
9/22 1:00 ET	At Tennessee	-3	San Diego	SD
9/22 1:00 ET	At Minnesota	-6.5	Cleveland	CLE
9/22 1:00 ET	At New England	-7	Tampa Bay	TB
9/22 1:00 ET	Houston	-2.5	At Baltimore	HOU
9/22 1:00 ET	At Dallas	-4	St. Louis	DAL
9/22 1:00 ET	At New Orleans	-7.5	Arizona	NO
9/22 1:00 ET	At Washington	-2	Detroit	WAS
9/22 1:00 ET	Green Bay	-2	At Cincinnati	GB
9/22 1:00 ET	At Carolina	-1	NY Giants	NYG
9/22 4:05 ET	At Miami	-2.5	Atlanta	ATL
9/22 4:25 ET	At San Francisco	-10	Indianapolis	IND
9/22 4:25 ET	At Seattle	-19.5	Jacksonville	JAC
9/22 4:25 ET	At NY Jets	-2.5	Buffalo	NYJ
9/22 8:30 ET	Chicago	-2.5	At Pittsburgh	CHI

9/23 8:40 ET At Denver -15 Oakland 49.5        DEN Interesting, this week features the largest spread in over 20 years. The hometown Seahawks play the Jaguars, a matchup between what many consider to be the best team in the NFL versus the worst. It should be entertaining to see how badly the Seahawks can light the Jags up. I hope everybody's fantasy football teams are playing well and that J E T S go out and beat the Bills this week!

Looking at Dave Nonis's First 8 Months as Leafs GM

Dave Nonis took over the Leafs general manager duties when former GM Brian Burke was fired in January 9, 2013, right before the start of the shortened 48 game 2013 NHL season. Let's take a look at the moves that Nonis has made since being appointed general manager. His first real sizable move was resigning forward Joffrey Lupul to a 5 year, $26,250,000 contract, worth $5,250,000 a year. Lupul had built off a great 2011/12 campaign in which he had set his career high of 67 points, and broken the point per game wall for the first time. It was also only the second time he had played more than 56 games since 2007. Nonis gave Lupul a 5 year deal only 1 day into the 2013 season, and 2 games later, Lupul broke his forearm. In Lupul continues to play at a point per game rate, as he has over the past 82 games between the last two seasons, then the contract should be very good value. However, Lupul has played in only 42% of his teams games over the past 5 seasons, and if he spends anywhere close to that same percentage of time on the sidelines over the next 5 years, the contract will be severe burden on the Leafs.

The next move by Nonis was his first transaction that brought a new player to Toronto. On the last day of January, Frazer McLaren was claimed off waivers from the San Jose Sharks. McLaren brought some much unneeded toughness to the Leafs roster, as they already had Colton Orr and Mark Fraser to do the face-punching duties. McLaren proceeded to put up a grand total of 5 points in 35 games for the Leafs while amassing 102 penalty minutes. Mclaren took 1.6 penalties per 60 minutes played, and drew only 0.7 penalties per 60 minutes played. To make matters worse, McLaren was extremely misused. He lead the entire team in offensive zone starts, at 55.3%, meaning that over half the time he was put on the ice off a whistle, he was in the offensive zone. Don't you think it might've been a better idea to put your players who do a little bit better than 0.14 points per game in the offensive end? Bad move from Nonis to bring a 3rd facepuncher to the roster.

The Leafs made the playoffs, carried by goaltender James Reimer, and lost in a heartbreaking 7 game series to the eventual Stanley Cup finalists, the Boston Bruins. Heading into the offseason though, there was hope surrounding the team for the first time in years, with young talent abounding, and what seemed like the first great goalie in Toronto since Eddie Belfour. The team had cap space, and had 2 compliance buyouts to use as a result of the lockout.

The offseason began with the quick resigning of Colton Orr. Carlyle and Nonis were making it clear that they liked the brawlers on their team, they wanted the Leafs to be "feared" by the opposition because of their toughness, not skill. 10 days later, Nonis completed his first trade as the Leafs GM, bringing in 26 year old goaltender Jonathan Bernier from Los Angeles in exchange for forward Matt Frattin, goaltender Ben Scrivens, and a second round draft pick. Frattin had played on and off for the Leafs over the past two season and had served quite well as a bottom six scoring option, putting up 13 points in 25 games in his sophomore NHL season. Scrivens had been a very good backup option for the Leafs in the 2012/13 season, posting a .915 save percentage, but was probably at the peak of his playing ability. Still, he was a cheap solid backup. In Bernier, the Leafs got a former first round draft pick (11th overall, 2006) who had been wasting away behind star goaltender Jonathan Quick in L.A. Bernier had been fantastic in his final year in the AHL, with a .936 SV% for the Manchester Monarchs, but that was in 2010, and he had been stuck behind Quick since. He is seen is having a lot of potential to be a star goalie, but the move seems very unnecessary, as the Leafs already seem to have a very good number 1 goalie in Reimer. They gave up a good young winger who can chip in from the bottom six, a backup goalie, and a second round draft pick for a backup goalie with potential to be star number 1 goalie. The trade seems like the Leafs gave up value for something they didn't need, which is just poor asset management, but if Bernier can become a star than the trade will pay off. Another down side to the trade is that it very likely pissed off Reimer, who is a restricted free agent at the end of the year, as this move tells him that they don't have much confidence that he can be a starting NHL goalie.

Then free agency began. On July 5th, the Leafs announced two signings. First, the resigning of center Tyler Bozak for 5 years, $21,000,000, at $4,200,000 a season. For the most part of the past 3 seasons, Bozak has been centering Phil Kessel. In those 3 seasons, Bozak has a 0.52 points per game average. Also in those past 3 seasons, Kessel has a 0.93 points per game average. So Bozak, who has been playing in a top line role with one of the league's most prolific and consistent point producers, has barely managed to put up a point every other game. Bozak had the most minutes out of any single Leafs forward last season, and yet was 5th on the team in points. He is decent defensively, and good on faceoffs, but his lack of offensive production makes his new $20,000,000 plus contract awful.

The other big free agency splash by the Leafs was the signing of 29 year-old winger David Clarkson for 7 years, $36,750,000, at $5,250,000 a season. Clarkson is a pretty good player. He plays well at both ends of the nice, doesn't allow a lot of shots on his own net, and produces a lot of shots on the opposition net. That said, never in his career has he produced the kind of numbers that would imply that he should get a contract anywhere in the same stratosphere as 7 years for $36,750,000. He has a career high of 46 points (46 points!!!). He has 170 points in 426 NHL games, totaling to just under .40 points per game. That's right, Dave Nonis gave 7 years to an almost 30 year old who averages well under half a point a game. This contract, money and term is really, really bad, and will likely come to severely bite the Leafs in the bottom in only a couple of years, and they'll still be on the hook until Clarkson is 36.

These moves, along with a couple other smaller ones, have left the Leafs with $4,895,333 to sign forward Nazem Kadri and defenseman Cody Franson. Under $5million to sign a 22 year old forward who just came 21st in NHL scoring, and a 26 year old defenseman who is entering his prime who just came 8th in NHL defenseman scoring? Good luck with that Dave Nonis. Good luck.